The Overconfidence Effect
Rich Baron • January 4, 2023
Failure to Listen can be Catasrophic
Utah is arguably one of the premier destinations for those who love the outdoors. Being born and raised in Utah, I am no stranger to outdoor activities. My family shares that same love of the outdoors and we take advantage of every opportunity we get to go camping, hiking, skiing, fishing, or exploring new outdoor destinations. This is an example of how overconfidence can lead to potentially tragic outcomes.
During one family vacation to St. George, Utah, we decided to hike the Hidden Canyon Trail in Zions National Park. We set out early in the morning to beat the heat of the day since it was July and temperatures in Southern Utah can easily top 100 degrees during the summer months. The group consisted of my family as well as several of our cousins and in-laws.
After the shuttle dropped us all off at the trailhead, we began our hike up the Hidden Canyon Trail, which is a little over 3 miles to reach the hidden canyon high above the valley floor. I had a handheld video camera and was excited to film the entire hike. The trail begins relatively easily on a series of paved switchbacks but eventually turns into dirt trails and steps cut out of the sandstone. Near the top is a steep, narrow trail along a sheer vertical cliff that is no more than a few feet wide. This part of the trail is not for the faint of heart and requires strict focus. There is a chain bolted into the wall to hold onto as the other side of the trail is a sheer one-thousand-foot drop straight down to the valley floor. I had filmed the trek up and was excited to film this part as well.
This part of the trail continues for several hundred feet along the cliff wall and then makes a turn to the left. At this corner, the drop to the valley below is the highest, and holding onto the chain is necessary to safely make it past this point. I was the first in our group and was slowed down on the corner due to a group ahead of us that was moving along this part of the trail very slowly. As I looked around and was filming the view, my wife kept asking me to put the camera down and keep hold of the chain. Since I was holding the chain with one hand, I felt completely safe and assured her that I was completely within my ability and safety. After a few minutes, the group ahead moved on and my group was able to move ahead to the safety of the flat, narrow hidden canyon.
After exploring the canyon, we rested in the shade for a while before heading back down the narrow trail and on to the bottom of the canyon. Once we started down, I took up the rear of the group this time thinking that it would be a great opportunity to film them going down the steep trail holding onto the chains. I thought my plan was brilliant and the footage I was going to get would be spectacular. As we started down the trail, again my wife kept asking me to please put down the camera and focus on the trail. I was feeling quite confident and again told her I would be fine. As we got near the point where the trail goes around the same corner where we were held up on our ascent, I paused to let the group get ahead of me. I wanted to get an awesome shot of the whole group descending from this point. Once again, I heard my wife plead with me to put the camera down and focus on the trail. Again, I brushed off her pleading as I was confident that I could make it down the chained part of the trail while filming.
A Hard Lesson Learned
As I got to the corner, I leaned out slightly, still holding onto the chain but could not quite get the whole family in the frame. I let go of the chain to step out from the wall to get a better shot. I saw the entire group ahead of me and congratulated myself on getting such a great shot. As I panned the camera down towards the valley directly below me, I saw my foot in the viewfinder and the front of my foot was literally off the trail with over one thousand feet of air between me and the valley floor. I muttered some words of panic, quickly moved back toward the wall, and grabbed the chain. Nobody in the group ahead of me had seen what had just happened. I caught my breath, steadied myself, put the camera away, and continued down the trail holding tight to the chain.
That evening back at our condo, we sat poolside enjoying the summer evening with our family. However, I was not engaged as usual as I was bothered by the events of the day and was deep in thought. My wife asked why I was so quiet. I told her what had happened and showed her the video clip from the hike and apologized for not listening to her advice.
After watching the clip again, I realized had I stepped even one inch closer, I would have lost my balance and fallen into the valley below. Not one of my family would have known I was gone until it was too late. I did not sleep that night as I kept reliving that moment as I lay in bed. I was ashamed of myself for being so foolish and overly confident. My example to others in my group was far from exemplary. My overconfidence in my ability resulted in ignoring the pleadings from my wife to focus on the trail and keep hold of the chain. Results of my overconfidence almost ended in a tragic, unnecessary outcome.
The Pitfalls of Overconfidence
So how does this story relate to leadership? Often as a leader’s power grows, real or perceived, they tend to become overconfident in their abilities. This is called the “Overconfidence Effect.” This is one of the most precarious traps to fall into as a leader. This false sense of confidence can lead to ineffective listening, assumptions, misunderstandings, and psychological blind spots. Law number 49 of the 50 Laws of Intelligent Leadership states that “Psychological blind spots may soothe the ego, but they are detrimental in the long term.”
It is a proven statistic that overconfidence in leadership results in the decline and destruction of individual careers as well as organizations. However, this does not have to be the case. The first step to effective intelligent leadership is learning to be vulnerable. This requires the willingness to open up to those around you, admit your mistakes and take advice from others.
The Vulnerability Decision
Great leaders surround themselves with experts in their fields and readily seek advice, counsel, and open collaboration. The decision to be vulnerable does not mean you are a weak leader. It takes a great deal of courage in choosing to be vulnerable. The vulnerability decision is the key to unlocking the potential to become a great leader. It will open doors to opportunities that were never thought possible for both yourself and your organization.
Truly great leaders are fully aware of their strengths and gaps and as a result, are humble in their approach to leading. This is a direct result of the vulnerability decision as well as a conscious decision to avoid the pitfalls of the overconfidence effect. Humble leaders realize that they are not the smartest, wisest person at the table. They also realize that they do not need to be as they seek advice and actively listen to everyone in the organization from entry-level employees to c-suite executives. This inclusion is what makes organizations strong, successful, and resilient. After all, leaders who fail to listen and ignore the advice of those around them will eventually find themselves not being listened to. Take it from someone whose ineffective listening and overconfidence almost ended up steering him off the cliff.
If you want to find out more about Intelligent Leadership and how deciding to be vulnerable can help you on your leadership journey, go to my Calendly link and book a complimentary coaching session with me.
About the Author
Rich Baron is a Master Certified Intelligent Leadership Executive Coach with over 25 years of operational management and executive-level leadership experience. Along with his coaching partner, Maikel Bailey, they bring over 50 years of executive coaching and leadership experience.
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If the years since the pandemic are any indication of what we can expect in this ever-changing business world, leadership needs to be stronger than ever. With rapid changes in business worldwide, the leadership skills we need are changing. Strong, versatile leaders are needed to face the challenges we will inevitably see - leaders who can adapt, strategize, and motivate their teams through complex situations. However, studies show that organizations and leaders alike are far from prepared to combat these challenges. What Do The Studies Show According to the Bersin by Deloitte report High-Impact Leadership Development , organizations with stronger “leadership maturity” are 11 times more likely to have a high number of leaders who can build talent for competitive advantage. And they’re 7 times more likely to have a high number of leaders who can inspire people to follow them. Unfortunately, the report also found that capable leadership talent is very rare. Only 60% of leaders in organizations show commercial acumen and business judgment; 48% are seen as driving change and innovation; and only 44% build talent for competitive advantage. Regarding rare leadership talent, in a study conducted by Kaiser Leadership Solutions , using a 360-degree instrument called the Leadership Versatility Index, they assessed over 24,000 senior managers from a variety of industries around the world. The results showed that less than 10% of the leaders in this study had the versatility and timing to be effective leaders. That means that more than 21,000 of the leaders studied do not have the versatility and timing to be truly effective in reading and responding to change with a wide repertoire of complementary skills and behaviors. Despite the studies that show that leadership skills and development are lacking, there has been a disturbing trend in organizations cutting L&D budgets and individual leaders putting the brakes on their own development. Or worse yet, ignoring the importance of leadership development altogether. A Short-Sighted Approach This lack of investment in leadership development is a short-sighted approach that ultimately hurts both the individual leaders and the organization. Effective leadership is crucial for the success of any organization, as leaders set the tone for the rest of the team and drive the company toward its goals. Additionally, in today's rapidly changing business landscape, it is more important than ever for leaders to be adaptable, agile, and able to navigate uncertainty and change. Investing in leadership development is key to ensuring that leaders have the skills and knowledge needed to thrive in this environment. Organizations must prioritize leadership development and allocate the necessary resources to support the growth and success of their leaders. By investing in leadership development, organizations can create a culture of continuous learning and improvement, drive innovation and growth, and ultimately, achieve sustainable success in the long run. Without ongoing development and training, leaders can stagnate in their skills and become less effective in their roles. This can lead to decreased employee engagement, lower productivity, and ultimately, a negative impact on the bottom line. Hitting the Pause Button Simply put, businesses and leaders are falling behind in preparing for the upcoming business challenges they will certainly face. This fact was shown in another leadership development survey of almost 18,000 human resource professionals and business leaders from around the world. The findings showed that 83% believe it is critical to the success of their organizations to develop leaders at all levels. Despite this, less than 5% of businesses have integrated leadership development at all levels. According to the Global Leadership Forecast 2021, “fewer than half of leaders feel they are effective in leadership skills that will be most critical for future success. This means that strong, versatile leaders are not being developed and prepared for future business challenges. As an executive coach, the most disturbing trend that I have seen in organizations, and individual leaders alike, is pumping the brakes on leadership development. Many of the excuses I have heard are that the L&D budget was cut, or we plan on revisiting leadership training next year, or my personal favorites, we are too busy to focus on that right now. With all the issues in poor employee retention, lack of leadership pipelines, poor talent selection, toxic bosses, and failing organizational culture (which is a direct result of poor leadership), it is no wonder you don't have the time. More than likely your time is now being spent chasing the tiger by the tail, putting out fires, and trying to keep your head above water. So, a quick question, do you think your excuses will help solve the problems? Or perhaps employing the age-old wisdom that if we just ignore it, it will go away. The trend of cutting L&D budgets has been a concern of employees globally. In February 2023, we featured an episode on our podcast, Mainline Executive Coaching ACT, entitled, "Dear Employees, Your Budget Has Been Cut." It has been downloaded and listened to in over 90 countries and 1000 cities worldwide, and is still one of our top downloaded episodes with continued daily downloads to this date. This goes to show that this is not just a concern for organizations in the United States, but globally as well. Quite frankly, this is an urgent situation that needs to change. Versatility Will Be The Key The need for leadership development is greater than ever. Over the past three years, business dynamics have shifted so dramatically, that the moment to maximize the benefits of strong and equipped leaders is now. Versatility in leadership skills is the master capability for leading in a VUCA world — that is, one characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Versatility is, "the ability to read and respond to change with a wide repertoire of complementary skills and behaviors." For instance, some circumstances call for leaders to take charge, force difficult issues, and make tough decisions, while others require leaders to enable, support, and include people. Similarly, organizations sometimes need leaders to focus on their future strategic direction and at other times to focus on day-to-day operations and execution. Versatile leaders can seamlessly move between opposing behaviors. They can step up and make a call just as easily as they can bring people together to make group decisions. They can read the room and adjust their behavior accordingly, from asking questions and listening with an open mind to driving the team to achieve success. They can also envision change in big-picture terms and focus on the tactical details of implementing change. Versatile leaders can read the business, from playing out the chessboard five moves ahead to making the next move swiftly and with precision. Focusing on the Future It is time to stop pausing or ignoring leadership development altogether, or worse, simply putting someone in a leadership role because they are strong individual contributors in their jobs. The ripple effects of poor leadership have resulted in skyrocketing turnover rates, poor customer retention, disengaged employees, and high costs associated with replacing the employees who left. To be successful and competitive in the future, developing versatile, strong leaders is imperative. Organizations that value leadership development with a focus on building a strong leadership pipeline full of well-trained, versatile leaders will inevitably see greater innovation, stronger financial performance, highly engaged employees, and strong employee retention. Going forward, organizations and individuals alike need to engage or reengage in leadership development. However, do not make the mistake of bringing back leadership training that the company invested in 10 years ago. Or worse yet, relying on someone in the organization who participated in those programs in the past to take on the task of leadership development today. The days of marathon seminars focused on a particular leadership skill are in the past. Quite frankly, they did not work then, and certainly will not work now. A Training Evolution Leadership training has evolved, and executive coaching is the sturdy bridge that connects individual leadership effectiveness with outstanding organizational performance . It can help organizations attract and retain exceptional leaders and help executive teams to improve their performance. In addition, online coaching platforms that feature ongoing, bite-sized, dynamic, and hybrid training sessions with accompanying implementation tools coupled with one-on-one coaching have proved to be very effective. Intelligent Leadership Online Academy (ILOA) which was created during the pandemic by the world's top executive coach, John Mattone is one such platform that is trusted and respected by the top executives and technologists at some of the world's top companies. Wrapping Up Today's leaders need more proficiency than ever before. No one knows what our disruptive world will throw at leaders next. However, if the past three years are any indication of what lies ahead, organizations and individuals must be prepared to face those challenges. Those organizations with strong, versatile leaders who possess a wide and balanced repertoire of complementary competencies, skills, and behaviors, combined with the wisdom to know which one to use in a given situation, are likely to be most effective at leading their people, teams, and organizations through the turbulence. And we know that this meta-competency — versatility — can be learned, coached, and developed. Reach out to me here to find out more about executive coaching, and ILOA. Or schedule time with me here for a discussion on how your future and the future of your organization can look. About the Author Rich Baron serves as the Chief Operating Officer and Director of the Global Coaching Project at John Mattone Global, where he also holds the title of Master Certified Intelligent Leadership Executive Coach. With over 30 years of rich experience in cultural transformation, operational leadership, executive roles, and coaching leaders at every level—from emerging talents to seasoned CEOs—Rich has a demonstrated track record of success. Rich co-hosts "Mainline Executive Coaching ACT," a podcast that is recognized by Feedspot as the leading Executive Coaching Podcast worldwide. The podcast's acclaim is based on an evaluation of numerous factors, including web traffic, social media followers, and timeliness.
Since the official recognition of Mount Everest as the world's tallest peak, it has become a significant fascination for mountaineers. For many decades, there has been ongoing debate regarding the possibility of successfully reaching its summit. The earliest documented evidence of a climber considering the feasibility of scaling Everest dates back to 1885. It wasn't until 1924 that the first real attempt at the summit was made on the 29,032-foot tall mountain that mountaineers around the globe realized that it might be possible to stand at the top of the world. There were several attempts after this time but it wasn't until 1953 when Tenzing Norgay and Edmund Hillary finally stood on the summit that the world realized that Everest had finally been conquered. I had the privilege in my early twenties to meet Dick Bass who was the founder and owner of Snowbird Ski Resort in Utah, and the oldest person, at that time, to reach the summit of Mount Everest at age 55. I was in awe to be talking with not only the owner of one of my favorite ski resorts but someone who had stood where only the bravest and most skilled climbers in the world could lay claim. Fast forward to recent years and Mount Everest has been transformed into a tourist destination, where long queues at the summit surpass even those at Disneyworld. With sufficient funds to hire a guide and a moderate level of climbing experience, anyone can now aspire to reach an altitude comparable to that of a cruising 747 Jumbo Jet. The ability to be recognized as one of the elite climbers in the world has been reduced to the limit of your patience to stand in long lines and the depths of your wallet. However, do not be fooled by the lure of adventure that Mt. Everest holds, it is not for the faint of heart or the unprepared. The Death Zone Tragically, the number of fatalities in the pursuit of conquering the world's highest peak has surpassed 300, with the remains of over 200 climbers still resting on the mountain. Each of these individuals was once driven by a strong desire to stand atop the world. Climbers understand a fundamental rule: reaching the summit is merely the initial half of the journey, and true congratulations are only warranted upon safely returning to base camp. However, the harsh reality is that the majority of deaths occur during the descent after the climbers have successfully reached the summit. This sobering fact underscores the immense challenges and risks involved in this perilous endeavor. Why is this the case? The climbers have a strong desire to reach the highest point on Earth and they devote a significant amount of money and time to their endeavor. They spend up to two months on the mountain, moving between camps and adjusting to the high altitude. However, the time frame for climbing is limited, so time management becomes crucial. Once they reach the death zone, which is above 8,000 meters (26,000 ft), they cannot stay for long due to the harsh conditions. When they are only a few hours away from reaching the summit, many push themselves beyond their physical and mental limits to achieve their goal of standing at the top, even if it's just for a brief moment. Unfortunately, this is where many climbers encounter serious problems. Once the climbers find themselves deep within the death zone, their ability to concentrate on safely descending becomes increasingly difficult. The lack of oxygen impairs their balance and cognitive function, while frostbite can lead to a loss of coordination. This makes it challenging to distinguish between altitude sickness, cold-related injuries, and sheer exhaustion. Unfortunately, any of these conditions can leave a climber stranded, resulting in death from exposure. In these situations, not only is the individual at risk, but their team is also put in danger. Given the extreme nature of climbing at such altitudes, climbers may be forced to make the heart-wrenching decision to leave a fellow climber behind. This is a decision that professional climbers understand and are prepared to make, even though it comes with great emotional turmoil. The presence of long queues at the summit has intensified the very real possibility of never making it out of the death zone. In 2019, a highly experienced climber from Utah finally fulfilled his 40-year ambition of reaching the summit of Mt. Everest. This individual, much like Dick Bass before him, had previously conquered numerous other towering peaks around the world. Upon reaching the summit, he contacted his wife to share the exciting news. Tragically, moments later, he suffered a heart attack and collapsed. Despite the efforts of his guides to bring him down the mountain, the long queues of approximately 300 climbers still striving to reach the summit hindered their progress. Regrettably, his guides were compelled to leave him behind as his final resting spot lies just off the trail near the top of the summit. This incident serves as a poignant reminder that even individuals with extensive experience and a strong support system can encounter unforeseen challenges. It is a stark example of how devastating the consequences can be, especially for those who are ill-prepared, lack adequate support, or choose to disregard their readiness and attempt to reach the summit hastily and prematurely. It underscores the importance of thorough preparation, recognizing one's limitations, and respecting the risks involved to ensure safety during such arduous undertakings. Applying this to Leadership How does this relate to leadership? When we neglect to invest time and effort in developing and refining our skills, planning, preparing for the future, and executing tasks, the consequences can be severe. As an executive coach, I often observe the same pattern among individuals who attempt to expedite their leadership aspirations at an unreasonable pace. In today's society, there is a prevalent desire for instant job satisfaction, a rapid path to achieving prestigious titles, wealth, and the corner office. We have been deceived into believing that attaining a high-ranking position automatically grants us recognition, power (although it should be noted as presumed), and the accompanying benefits that we erroneously associate with it. This cycle often leads individuals to be oblivious to the reality of their situation. Consequently, they experience burnout, stress, underperformance, high turnover rates within their team, and ultimately, a mediocre career. Nonetheless, this could have been prevented by dedicating time to honing leadership skills, being patient with the learning process, and properly planning for the future. By doing so, leaders can ensure long-term effectiveness in their careers. Promoting too early Organizations can unintentionally contribute to the failure of emerging leaders by prematurely promoting individuals who excel in individual contributor roles into leadership positions. It is essential to thoroughly prepare someone before placing them in a leadership role to avoid potential difficulties. If there are indications that a person may not yet be ready for leadership, there are ways to address these concerns. These include offering educational opportunities, providing mentors, and giving them access to additional resources. It is also crucial to have strategies in place to minimize any negative impacts and ensure the success of both current and future leaders. It is crucial to recognize that not everyone possesses the necessary qualities for a leadership position. Employing effective programs like the Intelligent Leadership Online Academy (ILOA) can help identify employees with the potential and ambition to become leaders. Simply assuming that someone who excels in their current role will automatically excel as a leader is irresponsible and lacks foresight. How to ensure readiness for leadership roles Many aspiring leaders, and organizations alike, often wonder how to properly prepare for the challenges they will face in leadership positions. Here are some ways to effectively prepare for the challenges that leaders will surely face: Work with an Executive Coach. Executive Coaches are necessary because leaders are necessary. Continually focus on learning and personal development of leadership talents. Developing strong communication and interpersonal skills are examples of crucial skills needed for effective leadership. Actively engage in leadership training programs, workshops, and seminars that focus on the areas where you need the most development. Improve your knowledge base by reading books and articles on leadership topics. Actively seek mentorship from seasoned leaders. Join professional networking groups that can provide valuable insights and connections with experienced leaders. Maintain a positive attitude, learn from mistakes, be open to feedback, and step outside of your comfort zone. By actively working on self-improvement and taking proactive steps to develop necessary skills, aspiring leaders can set themselves up for success in any leadership position. Wrapping up Leaders, much like individuals climbing Mount Everest, can sometimes be caught off guard by the demands of their role until they are fully immersed in it. The responsibilities and pressures placed on leaders are immense, often expecting immediate performance. These are skills that are not always taught in educational or professional settings, and they require a personalized approach that an executive coach can provide. Failing to prepare for the expectations of leadership can be a major reason why many individuals struggle in such positions, similar to climbers who face disappointment after getting close to the summit. I hope this discussion has underscored the importance of readiness for a leadership role. In addition, organizations must recognize the need for investment in their leaders to fully unlock their potential and set them up for success in their careers. I hold exceptional, disciplined leaders in high regard, much like those courageous adventurers who were well-prepared and understood the risks associated with reaching the pinnacle of the world. About the Author Rich Baron serves as the Chief Operating Officer and Director of the Global Coaching Project at John Mattone Global, where he also holds the title of Master Certified Intelligent Leadership Executive Coach. With over 30 years of rich experience in cultural transformation, operational leadership, executive roles, and coaching leaders at every level—from emerging talents to seasoned CEOs—Rich has a demonstrated track record of success. Rich co-hosts "Mainline Executive Coaching ACT," a podcast that is recognized by Feedspot as the leading Executive Coaching Podcast worldwide. The podcast's acclaim is based on an evaluation of numerous factors, including web traffic, social media followers, and timeliness. It boasts an impressive following in more than 80 countries and over 830 cities globally.
